World likely to cross 1.2°C global warming level this year

•  According to an assessment by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), It is very likely that 2016 will be the hottest year, with global temperatures even higher than the record-breaking temperatures in 2015. There is a possibility that temperature might increase by 1.2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels
• WMO published the provisional statement for 2016 to inform the United Nations Climate Change conference taking place in Marrakech, Morocco (COP22).

Highlights:

• Temperatures spiked in the early months of the year because of the powerful El Niño event of 2015-16.
• Long-term climate change indicators are also record breaking. Concentrations of major greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to increase to new records. Arctic sea ice remained at very low levels, especially during early 2016 and the October re-freezing period, and there was significant and very early melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
• Ocean heat was boosted by the El Niño event, contributing to coral reef bleaching, and above-average sea-level rise.
• The deadliest event so far in 2016 has been Hurricane Matthew, which was Haiti’s worst humanitarian emergency since the 2010 earthquake. Throughout the year, extreme weather led to considerable socio-economic losses in all regions of the world
• In parts of Arctic Russia, temperatures were 6°C to 7°C above the long-term average. Many other Arctic and sub-Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska and northwest Canada were at least 3°C above average.
• Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen. Heat waves and flooding are becoming more regular. Sea level rise has increased exposure to storm surges associated with tropical cyclones.
• Temperatures were above the 1961-90 average over the vast majority of land areas. In parts of Arctic Russia around the Ob River estuary and Novaya Zemlya, they were 6°C to 7°C above average. Many other Arctic and sub-Arctic regions in Russia, Alaska and northwest Canada were at least 3°C above average. More than 90% of Northern Hemisphere land areas outside the tropics were at least 1°C above average. Temperatures were less extreme in the Southern Hemisphere, but many areas were still 1°C or more above average, including northern South America, northern and eastern Australia, and much of southern Africa. The only large land area with below-average temperatures was part of subtropical South America (northern and central Argentina, parts of Paraguay and lowland Bolivia).
• Temperatures were above normal over most ocean areas. This contributed to significant coral bleaching and disruption of marine ecosystems in some tropical waters, including the Great Barrier Reef off the east coast of Australia, and Pacific island countries such as Fiji and Kiribati. Coral mortality of up to 50% was reported in parts of the Great Barrier Reef.
• The most prominent area of below-normal sea surface temperatures was the Southern Ocean south of 45° South (especially around the Drake Passage between South America and Antarctica, where temperatures were more than 1°C below normal in places).
• Global sea levels rose about 15 millimetres between November 2014 and February 2016 as a result of El Niño, well above the post-1993 trend of 3 to 3.5 mm per year, with the early 2016 values reaching new record highs. Since February, sea levels have remained fairly stable.
• Annual average global carbon dioxide concentrations in 2015 reached 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time. Initial observations indicate new records in 2016. At Cape Grim (Australia), CO2 levels in August averaged 401.42 ppm, compared with 398.13 ppm in August 2015. At Mauna Loa (Hawaii), mean weekly concentrations of CO2 as of 23 October were 402.07 ppm, compared with 398.50 ppm at the same time in 2015, whilst the May 2016 value of 407.7 ppm was the highest monthly value on record.
• Arctic sea ice extent was well below normal throughout the year. The seasonal minimum in September was 4.14 million square kilometres, the equal-second (with 2007) lowest extent on record after 2012. The winter maximum in March was the lowest on record. The autumn freeze-up has also been much slower than normal; the sea ice extent as of the end of October is the lowest on record for the time of year.
• After several years of well-above-normal values, Antarctic sea ice extent fell to near normal by the start of 2016. It reached a seasonal maximum nearly a month earlier than usual. It was still well below normal as of the end of October.
• Annual and long-term changes in the climate system can aggravate social, humanitarian and environmental pressure. According to International Organisation for Migration, population migration is expected to increase as a result of more frequent and potentially more intense weather-related disasters, competition and conflict over shrinking resources, and rising sea levels rendering coastal and low lying zones uninhabitable.
• According to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), in 2015 there were 19.2 million new displacements associated with weather, water, climate and geophysical hazards in 113 countries, more than twice as many as for conflict and violence. Of these, weather-related hazards triggered 14.7 million displacements. South and East Asia dominated in terms of the highest absolute figures, but no region of the world was unaffected. Equivalent data for 2016 are not yet available.
• Extreme weather and climate related events influenced by the strong El-Niño in 2015/2016 had significant negative impacts on agriculture and food security. More than 60 million people around the world were affected by these events, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

By: Vishal