Cyber Deterrence – A dream or reality

The concept of deterrence is simple “prevention by threat”. Si vis pacem para bellum an ancient Roman Maxim which means “if you want to have peace be prepared for war”. Deterrence is the strategy of a hedgehog who bares his bristles to keep other animals away when attacked. Deterrence has been used since time immemorial to create fear and panic in the mind of the adversary. The advent of nuclear weapons, however, has given a new meaning to the theory of deterrence. The difference between deterrence in conventional sense and deterrence in nuclear context however lies in their degree of effectiveness. A single thermonuclear bomb has an explosive force superior to that of all bombs dropped on Germany during the Second World War.

Dr. Henry Kissinger, in his famous book “Necessity for choice” embraced the new gospel of limited wars and introduced the element of” credibility to deterrence” Deterrence he wrote,” requires a combination of power, the will to use it and the assessment of these by the potential aggressor. Since 1960 Nuclear Deterrence has dominated the realm of strategy in one form or the other. The period of 80’s was dominated by deterrence based on mutual assured destruction. USA engaged Former Soviet Union in a nuclear arms race which resulted in disintegration of Soviet Union and by devising nuclear strategies USA achieved its aim. Deterrence focuses on making potential adversaries think twice about attacking, forcing them to consider the costs of doing so, as well as the consequences that might come from a counterattack.

There are two main principles of deterrence.

The first, denial, involves convincing would-be attackers that they won’t succeed, at least without enormous effort and cost beyond what they are willing to invest.

The second is punishment: Making sure the adversaries know there will be a strong response that might inflict more harm than they are willing to bear.

More than 40% of the world’s population hooked to internet and increased almost tenfold since 1999. The 21st century has seen a 5th domain of warfare which is fought in cyber space and is more suited to nation states, as it encompasses the geographical limits, anonymous , economical and can be replicated. The super cyber weapon e.g Stuxnet proved that the critical infrastructure of the adversary can be easily destroyed through this warfare without any bloodshed and with anonymity. After the Stuxnet attack on Iran’s Nuclear programme there have been other dangerous cyber weapons present in cyberspace such as Gauss, Flame, Duqu etc. According to a report almost all nations possess basic cyber weapon capability. Because of the nature of this art of warfare it is not easy for any nation to prevent a cyber attack. United States which has the monopoly internet governance faces lot of cyber attacks. Since 2005 to 2015 US agencies reported that there has been a 1,300 percent jump in cyber security incidents. It is believed that in the recent US presidential elections the Democratic Party computers were interfered by Russian hackers. Clearly, we need better ways of addressing this broad category of threats. Majority of the nations are in a dilemma that to make the cyber space safe and secure, can cyber deterrence work.

By: Ajay Kumar