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India and Pakistan share unique historic relations which undergo through the cycles of tensions and peace. Their relation not only impacts them alone but has a significant influence on the geopolitics of the entire South Asian Region. Ever since the partition of the sub-continent in 1947, when Britain dismantled its Indian empire, India and Pakistan have been arch rivals. The animosity has its roots in religion and history, and is epitomised by the long-running conflict over the state of Jammu and Kashmir. They have not only entered a new nuclear arms race but expanded the club of nuclear powers across the globe which includes the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, North Korea and Israel. Presence of Nuclear Arsenal coupled with various strains in their relations poses a threat to the regional peace and security.
In the back drop of the recent civil nuclear negotiations between US and Pakistan, it becomes imperative to speculate the threats and opportunities that this deal may endorse. It is important to reassert whether Pakistan Government is responsible enough to keep their nuclear facilities safe and secure. It is also important to evaluate Pakistan’s stance on ‘Nuclear Deterrence’ when it comes into a conflict with its nuclear capable neighbour—India.
While India voluntarily advocates ‘No First Use’ Doctrine and Maintains a responsible control over its Nukes, such a stance is far from being undertaken by Pakistan. On the contrary the Pakistan Army-custodian of Pak’s nuclear arsenal advocates the policy of early use of nuclear weapons in case of a conflict with India. India has limited nuclear arsenal sufficient enough to create deterrence in a hostile neighbourhood and has no intention of flexing muscles. On the other hand Pakistan has more number of nuclear missiles than India. Its frequent threats are indicative of its irresponsibility that often creates tensions in the entire region.
Nuclear stance of Pakistan must also be evaluated in the light of Sino-Pak relations. Besides being all weather friends, both have stakes in Kashmir and have undergone various economic negotiations, ‘China Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC) being the most recent one. Their Nuclear Relationship is not only exclusive but obscure as well and has the potential of creating havoc in the region. The Sino-Pakistan nuclear link has been well-known even though some specifics are often shrouded in secrecy. It was Chinese government who aided first nuclear test of Pakistan in 1998-Chagai-1. China’s controversial support to Pakistan for the construction of nuclear reactors Chashma-3 and Chashma-4 creates apprehensions regarding their nuclear relations. In this context it becomes important that their nuclear relations are under the scrutiny of global nuclear institutions.
The internal terrorism in Pakistan and the latent support of the Pakistan Army to such terrorist outfits generates a threat of Nuclear Terrorism.
India has often been a victim of these terrorist outfits from time to time whether it is the Mumbai attacks of 26/11 or the Parliament attacks of 2001. Such incidents paint a horrific picture of what may happen if the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan gets into the hands of these terrorist outfits.
Despite these apprehensions and irresponsible acts of Government of Pakistan we cannot ignore the fact that the people in Pakistan desperately need the infrastructure that can induce economic growth and development. Thus the Civil Nuclear Deal has various implications for Pakistan.
Firstly, such a deal will help establish the energy-base for a healthy economic infrastructure. A healthy economy will generate employment and prospects for more development. The growth in its economy can escalate its trade with India and foster healthy relations between them.
Secondly, progressive Pakistan will be able to pacify the chaos that is the outcome of its stagnant economy, poverty and unemployment. This will keep the youth from joining terrorist outfits and thus will contain the menace of terrorism in the region.
Thirdly, the deal with US may persuade Pakistan Govt to solidify its democratic institutions. This will not only limit the intervention of Pak-Army in Pakistan’s Governance but will also create a mass of awakened Public sufficiently empowered to force reconciliations (if ever required) with India.
Thus this deal has the potential of ushering the conditions that will not only benefit Pakistan but entire south Asian Region especially India. However a responsible stature of Pakistan will be a pre-requisite for reaping the benefits of this Deal.
Prediction of 5 initiatives that Pakistan may have to take:
Under these circumstances it becomes necessary that India encourages Pakistan’s inclusion into Global Nuclear Order because such an inclusion is bound to impose various conditions on Pak that will bring a substantial change in its behaviour in regards to its nuclear capability. The US-Pak civil nuclear deal can therefore be harnessed to persuade Pakistan to agree to No First Use against India. It should further seek firm commitments from it to clamp down on terrorism in the country. Also attempts should be made to prompt Pakistan to negotiate Nuclear Confidence Building Measure with India. In the Light of these arguments, it is beyond doubt that the US-Pak deal if negotiated and implemented wisely will be a boon for India and also for the South-Asian Regional Security.
Besides this, the nuclear Programmes of Pakistan will be brought under the supervision of Global Nuclear Institutions. Pakistan may also be persuaded from stalling Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). Such Developments will benefit the entire Globe and hence US-Pak Nuclear Deal is something to look forward to.
By: Parveen bansal ProfileResourcesReport error
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