Southwest Monsoon to be normal this year

•  India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast “normal rainfall” in the June-September monsoon.
• Monsoon rainfall will be around 98% of the 50-year average of 89cm.
• The meteorological department classifies rainfall within a 4% window of 89cm as normal and a 5-15% deficiency as “below normal”. Anything lower, or less than 81cm, usually portends drought conditions.
• In the last five years, only twice has monsoon rainfall been less than what IMD indicated in April, most significantly in 2009, when India received only 78% of the average instead of IMD’s prediction of 96%. Moreover, IMD’s forecasting models have an error margin of 5%.
• Although inflation based on the wholesale price index declined sharply to 5.96% in March from 6.84% in February, retail inflation remained in double digits at 10.39% in March.

About IMD:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD), also referred to as the Met Department, is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India.
• It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.
• It has the responsibility for forecasting, naming and distribution of warnings for tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean region, including the Malacca Straits, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.

What a normal monsoon means for India:

• Agriculture production grows, reducing the food inflation rate and lowering import of pulses and oilseeds. Economic growth strengthens.
• Less drawdown of water levels in reservoirs, fewer instances of drinking water crisis.
• Improved power situation due to adequate water in hydel power projects, less use of pumps for irrigation.
• Overall rural consumption gets a boost due to rising farm and non-farm wages.
• Sales of auto, FMCG, fertiliser, seeds, and tractor companies positively impacted.
• Less pressure on the RBI to raise interest rates.
• Low inflation further fuels demand in the housing and auto sectors.
• Drought or rainfall deficiency in less number of areas means the burden on exchequer towards providing relief or extra person days of work under MGNREGA is that much less

By: Vishal