UN sees 70% chance of El Nino event this year

•  The World Meteorological Organization forecast "a 70% chance of an El Nino developing by the end of this year,".
• WMO does not expect the anticipated El Nino to be as powerful as the 2015-2016 event, but it will still have considerable impacts.
• The organization sees increased odds of higher surface temperatures in most of Asia-Pacific, Europe, North America, Africa and along much of South America's coastline.
• Interior parts of South America, Greenland, many south Pacific islands and some in the Caribbean were identified as possible exceptions.

WHAT ARE EL NIÑO AND LA NIÑA?

• El Niño and La Niña are complex weather patterns characterized by changing ocean temperatures around the equator in the Pacific Ocean.
• Specifically, El Niño and La Niña are the opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. In the area around the equator, normal weather patterns mean that winds carry warm water in the Pacific Ocean from the coasts of North and South America westward.
• But during El Niño, those winds weaken, and the east-west travel of warm water stops. When that happens, the winds reverse, and carry the warm water back towards the eastern Pacific, warming the ocean temperatures.
• El Niño is often followed by La Niña, an intensification of normal weather patterns, that causes a cooling of ocean temperatures, as the winds strengthen and blow all the warm water towards the west.

Analysis:

• This warming and cooling of surface water temperatures not only impacts the oceans, but also how much it rains on land, causing either droughts or flooding.
• El Niño and its warm waters are frequently associated with drought, while La Niña is usually linked to increased flooding — but because the global weather system is very complex, this is not always the case.
• El Niño and La Niña most strongly affect countries around the equator such as those in Central and South America, the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, and East and Southern Africa. While unpredictable weather cause problems for everyone, it most severely affects people who live in regions that rely heavily on agriculture, as too much or too little rain can be devastating for crops.
• While drought can cause large crop failures, so can flooding. Flooding washes away seeds, and saturates soil with water so that crops cannot grow. If heavy rains follow periods of drought, precious topsoil can be washed away, too.
• In many of the world’s poorest areas, people rely almost exclusively on rain-fed agriculture in order to feed their families. Concern works with many of these communities, and they’re the ones that El Niño and La Niña hit hardest.
• Many of these communities are already working land that is poor or doesn’t receive a lot of rain. Each season, they can only harvest enough food to last them until the following season, leaving them few or no reserves to fall back on. A single drought or flood can therefore have ­devastating effects on these vulnerable communities. One failed harvest can mean families run out of food within weeks and will have nothing to eat until the next harvest many months away. Widespread droughts, like those we’ve been seeing with this year’s El Niño, can leave millions without food.

By: Vishal