Climate Change May Affect Flight Duration

• New research on climate change suggests that flight durations may change as a result of the speeding up of the jet stream.
• The jet stream is essentially a concentrated river of fast-moving air, active at altitudes ranging from 20,000 to 50,000 feet. Commercial jets typically cruise at 33,000 to 41,000 feet. The concentrated wind blows from west to east in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, either pushing or slowing airline flights every single day.
• There is a possibility that jet stream speed will have an even stronger impact, with the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

About Jet streams:

• The jet streams on Earth — other planets have jet streams as well, notably Jupiter and Saturn — typically run from west to east, and their width is relatively narrow compared to their length. Jet streams are typically active at 20,000 feet (6,100 meters) to 50,000 feet (9,144 meters), or about 7 miles (11 kilometers) above the surface and travel in what is known as the troposphere of Earth’s multi-layered atmosphere.
• The seasons of the year, location of low and high pressure systems and air temperature all affect when and where a jet stream travels. Jet streams form a border between hot and cold air. Because air temperature influences jet streams, they are more active in the winter when there are wider ranges of temperatures between the competing Arctic and tropic air masses.
• Temperature also influences the velocity of the jet stream. The greater the difference in air temperature, the faster the jet stream, which can reach speeds of up to 250 mph (402 kph) or greater, but average about 110 mph (177 kph).
• Both the Northern and Southern hemispheres have jet streams, although the jet streams in the north are more forceful. Each hemisphere has two primary jet streams — a polar and a subtropical. The polar jet streams form between the latitudes of 50 and 60 degrees north and south of the equator, and the subtropical jet stream is closer to the equator and takes shape at latitudes of 20 to 30 degrees.

Analysis:

• An increase in the speed of the jet stream will likely make westbound flights take even longer, because they will have to fight increased headwinds. Eastbound flights will get much shorter, as they’re pushed by the prevailing west to east winds. Climate data was fed into weather forecasting models, and the results showed that the doubling of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would cause an average fifteen percent increase in the winds aloft.
• This could have implications for airlines, passengers, and airports. The aviation industry is facing pressure to reduce its environmental impacts, but this shows a new way in which aviation is itself susceptible to the effects of climate change.
• This effect will increase the fuel costs to airlines, potentially raising ticket prices, and it will worsen the environmental impacts of aviation.
• Climatologists say that changes in the jet streams are closely tied to global warming, especially the polar jet streams, because there is a great deal of evidence that the North and South poles are warming faster than the remainder of the planet. When the jets streams are warmer, their ups and downs become more extreme, bringing different types of weather to areas that are not accustomed to climate variations. If the jet stream dips south, for example, it takes the colder air masses with it.

By: Vishal