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The report, ‘South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards’, has been authored by World Bank. It looks at six countries in South Asia and how projected changes in temperature and precipitation will affect living standards in these countries. The report looks at two scenarios: climate-sensitive and carbon-intensive.
Findings of the report :-
Hotspots:- Using annual household consumption as a proxy for living standards, the report identifies “hotspots” which are districts where these changes will have a notable effect on living standards. For the region, it has found that India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka will be adversely affected by these changes, while Afghanistan and Nepal will benefit as they are relatively cold. Eight hundred million South Asians are at risk to see their standards of living and incomes decline as rising temperatures and more erratic rainfalls will cut down crop yields, make water more scare, and push more people away from their homes to seek safer places.
Living standards:- Almost half of South Asia’s population, including India, now lives in the vulnerable areas and will suffer from declining living standards that could be attributed to falling agricultural yields, lower labor productivity or related health impacts. Some of these areas are already less developed, suffer from poor connectivity and are water stressed.
India:-
Living conditions:- According to the Bank’s analysis, the most at-risk areas within the country are the inland agriculture-heavy areas of Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh which could see living standards drop by as much as 9%. Temperature rise:- India’s average annual temperatures are expected to rise by 1.00°C to 2°C by 2050 even if preventive measures are taken along the lines of those recommended by the Paris climate change agreement of 2015. If no measures are taken average temperatures in India are predicted to increase by 1.5°C to 3°C. States in the central, northern and north-western parts of India emerge as most vulnerable to changes in average temperature and precipitation. Hotspots:- In India today, approximately 600 million people live in locations that could either become moderate or severe hotspots by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario, the report says.
Economic impact:- These weather changes will result in lower per capita consumption levels that could further increase poverty and inequality in one of the poorest regions of the world, South Asia. Varying rainfall patterns and rising average temperature due to global warming could impact 2.8% off India’s GDP by 2050. For a country where a large chunk of the population is still reliant on agriculture, global warming could mean untold disaster, through loss of livelihood, potentially depressed incomes, forced migration, rising morbidity, etc. Enhancing educational attainment, reducing water stress, and improving job opportunities in the nonagricultural sectors is necessary:- The analysis predicts that a 30 percent improvement on these measures could halt the decline in living standards by almost 1 percent from -2.8 percent to -1.9 percent.
Way forward :-
India should rally for greater accountability from, and more stringent GHG emission reduction by, other countries. India also must remove existing policies on water and bring new ones that are geared towards efficient and accountable water-usage. The government must stop incentivising farmers to grow water-intensive crops in water-stressed areas by weaning MSP-led public procurement away from these crops in such areas. Recommendations of the report are:- The identification of hotspots from changes in average weather allows to design strategies to cope with climate impacts with a great level of spatial granularity. The expected decline in living standards resulting from expected changes in temperature and rainfall provides an indication of how much it would be worth spending to mitigate the impacts. The relationship between expected changes in living standards, and observed household and location characteristics—such as human capital and infrastructure—provides valuable hints on potential interventions for building resilience. Policies and actions must be tailored to address the specific impacts and needs based on local conditions. No single set of interventions will work in all hotspots.
By: SONAM SHEORAN ProfileResourcesReport error
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