India’s connectivity to Central Asia

India’s connectivity to Central Asia is restricted by Himalayas in the north and strained relations with Pakistan in the west. India’s geographical continuity with Afghanistan has lost relevance with Pakistan in control of Gilgit-Baltistan region of Kashmir which is popularly known as PoK, where India shared her borders with Afghanistan.

It is only through a combination of land and sea based routes that India can connect with the hydrocarbon and mineral rich Central Asian republics to fulfill her energy needs. The route to central Asia requires that India first circumvents Pakistan’s territory through the sea route till Iran’s Chabahar port and then follow the land route from Iran to Afghanistan via the Zaranj-Delaram highway till Afghanistan’s northern frontiers that have geographical continuity with Central Asian Republics.

It is for these reasons that India needs to maintain good relations with Iran and Afghanistan and capitalize on Afghanistan’s strained relations with Pakistan to ensure India’s connectivity with Central Asia.

Apart from geographical constraints India also needs to ensure freedom of sea lanes of communication which is under peril with China’s rising sphere of influence in the Indian Ocean and interference in Afghanistan’s nation building process.

India has been strengthening her connectivity with Central Asia via the ‘Connect Central Asia’ Policy launched in 2012 wherein India has adopted soft power approaches to fulfill her national interests of procuring oil and gas resources.

In this regard India is building multi modal transport system such as the Chabahar port in Iran, construction of Zaranj-Delaram highway in Iran and Afghanistan, Iran-Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan (ITK) Rail line, International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) along with the Ashgabat agreement which will provision for transit routes from Iran to Kazakhstan. This soft power approach will see India providing credit lines to countries in these regions along with strengthening people to people contacts to give shape to India’s aspirations of enhancing her connect with Central Asia and thus overcome the geographical barriers.

Geopolitical constraints

China’s presence in Gwadar port of Pakistan which is hardly 70 kms from Iran’s Chabahar port is a serious concern for India. The Gwadar port is a strategic end point of China Pakistan Economic corridor (CPEC) that opens in the Arabian sea thereby providing connectivity from Central Asia to Middle East nations and hence forth to African continents. If China succeeds in implementing its CPEC ambitions, then there is a high probability that India’s infrastructure investments in Iran and Afghanistan would not yield the desired results as CPEC would act as a competitor.

In order to neutralize the perceived threats from CPEC, India has raised the issue of territorial sovereignty wherein it has objected to the passage of CPEC via disputed territory of PoK and thus declined to attend the meeting on China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) in Beijing in 2nd week of May 2017 which is being attended by 70+ World nations. Secondly, as per the strategic shift in India’s Foreign Policy orientation, India has raised the issue of human rights violations in Pakistan’s Sindh and Balochistan province. It is to be noted that Gwadar port which lies in Balochistan province of Pakistan would face existential threat if secessionist movements pick pace thereby eliminating the threat to India’s investments in Iran and Afghanistan.

The issue of Islamic terrorism manifested in form of radical groups such as ISIS threatens to disrupt the trade and commerce in the region. In order to address this issue and safeguard India’s connectivity to hydrocarbon rich Central Asian nations, India has been providing policing and military training facilities to Afghan Army regulars along with military equipment. The recent killing of Pakistan officials by Afghan Army along the international border is a welcome sign for India as it signifies Afghanistan’s zero tolerance policy towards terrorism emanating from Pakistan.

By: Abhinav